European commercial property to give highest returns since 2006
PallMallIt's estimated that European Commercial Property will deliver
total returns of around 19 per cent per year, which is the highest
since 2006, when it reached 25 per cent.
The figures come from the Cushman & Wakefield Forecasts,
which cover 121 European Markets which particular focus on offices,
retail and industrial. It's forecast that retail will be the
best performing sector this year at 22 per cent returns, with both
office and industrial expected to hit 17 per cent.
Despite some momentum loss in the world economy in September,
confidence in the European real estate market remains high.
A number of factors are keeping commercial property yields under
downward pressure, including the low interest rate environment, ECB
QE and exceptional investor interest.
Yields fell in 43 of the 121 markets during the third quarter of
this year, and Cushman & Wakefield have already forecast that
yields will continue in this number of markets in 2016.
However, they've forecast that other markets are likely to level
off.
The slower yield compression has meant that European property
returns are expected to slow to 9 per cent next.
Cushman & Wakefield have also predicted that industrial
property will be the best performing sector over the next five
years due to the higher yield and income return.
In terms of individual markets, Dublin retail is expected to
demonstrate the highest return next year, reaching nearly 30 per
cent, with strong investor interest pushing yields to below 4 per
cent. Rents are expected to rise by around 17 per cent.
It's estimated that reasonable growth in most European economies
will filter through to modest rent rises through 2016, with
property rental growth expected to average around 3 per cent next
year.
Fergus Hicks, Associate Director for Wakefield Research,
said:
"Ongoing low interest rates are seeing sustained high levels of
investor demand for European commercial property and yields remain
under downward pressure. In many markets we expect yields to fall
further next year, but by year-end we expect yields to be levelling
off. Overall, we think European commercial property returns will
remain healthy in 2016, although slow from 2015."
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